How This Unusual Season Shattered the Typical Coach of the Year Mold.
Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.
Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.
But the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and recent also-rans ascending in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.
This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.
Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.
Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.
During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!
Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.
4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4
Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.
Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.
The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.
After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.
The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record
Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.
Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.
Still