🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.